The "95% safer" figure comes from a 2015 expert review commissioned by Public Health England. It's the most cited statistic in the vaping-vs-smoking debate — and the most misunderstood.
How the Number Was Derived
The PHE review used a multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) model. An international panel of experts scored both products on 12 harm domains:
- Product attributes (toxicity, nicotine content, combustion products)
- Health effects (morbidity, mortality, lung disease, cardiovascular disease)
- Social factors (secondhand exposure, accident risk)
Each domain was weighted and scored. The final composite score placed vaping at approximately 5% of the total harm of smoking — hence the "95% less harmful" finding.
What the 95% Does NOT Mean
The 95% is a relative risk estimate, not an absolute safety claim. It means: if smoking has a harm score of 100, vaping scores approximately 5. It does NOT mean:
- That vaping is 95% safe
- That vaping is safe for non-smokers
- That all vape products are equally safe (the PHE review was based on regulated products, not illicit disposables)
- That long-term effects are fully known
Who Endorses the Finding
- Public Health England (now OHID): Original 2015 review, reaffirmed in 2018, 2022, and 2024 updates
- Royal College of Physicians: Endorsed in their 2016 report "Nicotine without Smoke"
- UK National Health Service (NHS): Cites the 95% figure in official smoking cessation guidance
- American Cancer Society: Acknowledges vaping is less harmful than smoking but has not adopted the 95% figure
- U.S. FDA: Recognizes the potential for reduced harm but uses case-by-case PMTA authorization rather than a blanket figure
